Wheat Update

Matt Dale

Wow. Wow! And WOW! We saw over $1.00 gains in all type of wheat this past month. Weather concerns in northern US spring wheat regions and parts of western Canada have been the driver of this. They have carried the Chicago soft wheats along with it, but make no mistake the driver is droughts in hard spring wheat regions. This is a typical weather rally moment that happens most years which is historically a great time to sell. Keep in mind that a forecast of rain, not actual rain falling can be enough to drop a weather rally into a free fall back down. There is potential for this one to rise up on those fears, but overall there is still a lot of wheat in the world to last and be moved around.

With Ontario harvest just beginning in the south west corner of the great lakes, early indications are decent yields in the mid 80’s with good quality. Now this is a very small sample size, but it is encouraging to see low fusarium/vom levels on the first few fields taken off. With the wet weather many regions had at key crop stages the industry has been on high alert for quality issues with this crop. Cross our fingers that it is going to continue to be a high quality crop all across the board.

Cash wheat prices are now over $330/mt for Hard Red Spring for this harvest, over $7.00/bu on Soft Red Winter for next harvest and close to $7 for 2019!  With big swings in dollars and futures this past while, set some targets on that far out stuff and try to get the markets to work for you and trigger it. We had some high targets get picked off through target pricing that we likely could have executed in time through normal contracts.